DNV has been assisting major LNG operators understand the performance that can be expected from their facilities for many years through the application of performance forecasting models. This technology combines historical performance information for individual equipment items, together with operating and maintenance rules for the asset. It has traditionally been applied to predict gas send-out efficiency hence providing a means through which the configuration of the terminal can be optimised.

Recently DNV has been working with various major LNG importers to extend the scope of such analyses to include additional components of the LNG supply chain such as shipping and storage.

Enhanced simulation models
These enhanced simulation models provide a virtual environment through which an operator may explore the performance envelope attainable from the entire LNG supply chain. Operators are therefore better able to understand the performance of their entire supply chain under a variety of alternative design and operational scenarios. Thus the quality of management decisions can be enhanced.

Recent issues investigated by DNV include; identifying whether a second berth is required to support a planned terminal expansion, whether additional LNG or gas storage is the better option for supporting terminal performance and assessing the ability of a terminal to meet agreed contract terms. The models can also be used to assess berth utilisation and costs associated with vessel demurrage.

All of this is made possible through the use of a state of the art performance simulation tool (TARO) which can account, in a probabilistic fashion, for shipping logistics, LNG storage, equipment configuration, equipment performance and operations and maintenance issues.