Jardine, a DNV company, provides a performance forecasting service to optimise integrated gas development planning for existing infrastructure and future developments.

Jardine has analysed and assisted in improving the performance of integrated gas networks around the world in: the UK, Brazil, Canada, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Oman, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines.

From the customers perspective, security of gas supply is quite different to that for an oil supply scenario, as gas customers require their gas feeds continuously with limited scope for providing storage to compensate for upstream outages. The consequences from under-delivery can not only result in economic damages, but can be further exacerbated by possible penalty payments and loss of reputation. Put simply, the gas must be delivered to the consumer today not tomorrow, hence the confidence in the security of gas supply to customers - whether they are domestic consumers, power plants, LNG plants, or GTL plants - needs to be very high, if not 100%.

Our approach
Simulation modelling has been recognised as providing a medium for business optimisation, commencing with front-end engineering design, carrying through detailed design including maintenance and logistics planning, and finally during the operational phase of the asset.

Jardine has developed a top down approach to asset performance analysis, adding layers of detail where required, which has been successfully employed with clients (multi-national and state owned operators). In order to correctly forecast the security of supply, all assets, from the wells through facilities and pipelines, to the customer delivery point must be considered while accounting for parameters such as: equipment reliability, maintenance response issues including spares, plant configuration, pipeline reliability, and linepack amongst many others. With associated gas sources there is the added complication of flaring restrictions (zero flaring targets) and potential effect on oil production from loss of gas facilities.

We employ Jardine Technology's life-cycle performance simulator, MAROS, to enable the key parameters affecting security of supply to be included in security of gas supply analysis:

• Gas reservoir profiles
• Facilities reliability
• Pipeline reliability
• Operations & Maintenance strategy
• Production recovery (e.g. linepack, boosting)
• Catastrophic Events
• Demand profiles
• Future changes (configuration of facilities and pipelines, variation of gas reservoirs feed, and future gas demand rates)

Our Solutions
Jardine's security of supply analysis will:

• Quantify the gas network's ability to meet contractual requirements over a pre-determined time period (e.g. 5, 10, 20 years). The contractual arrangements are typically studied to meet time variant daily contract quotas (DCQs) or Annual contract quotas (ACQs)
• Quantify potential under-deliveries or shortfalls in terms of frequency and volume to customers. Assess impact for each gas delivery agreement/customer, for both uninterruptible and interruptible contracts
• Quantify impact from potential load shedding philosophy on customer under-deliveries
• Rank contributors to production and contractual shortfalls (typically by plant, pipeline, equipment systems, and equipment type)
• Quantify impact from recovery operations such as linepack volumes and temporarily boosting production
• Quantify impact from different supply and/or demand scenarios
• Enable "what-if" analyses to aid the decision making process covering network configuration, engineering design, maintenance strategy, operations strategy, and sales strategy
• Provide quantitative performance figures (e.g. revenue streams, variable opex from unplanned maintenance activities) for different scenarios to input to cost benefit and Net Present Value (NPV) analyses