The goal of performance forecasting analysis is to assist rail companies in delivering improved journey punctuality whilst making the correct investment decisions.
Our Approach
The performance forecasting analysis has two principal objectives:
- Evaluate the existing infrastructure and optimise the maintenance strategy to yield the least impact on train performance (i.e. to minimise the number and durations of journey delays - lost minutes)
- Evaluate future investment scenarios (infrastructure expenditure such as track renewals, signals and points upgrades) on journey performance
The two objectives are considered for both today's timetable (frequency of journeys) and future timetables, which could have a greater volume of train traffic. Based upon current rolling stock, infrastructure reliability, maintenance resources and operational performance and using projected improvements and a full timetable, TRAIL (Track/Train Reliability Availability Infrastructure Logistics) will provide the key performance metrics for the future railway. Typical TRAIL runs will be 40 cycles of 1 year, so as to provide a large and repeatable data set.
Our Expertise
DNV's acquistion of Jardine & Associates in 2005 provides us with unique knowledge and expertise in the Jardine Technology software. Jardine is currently working with Network Rail UK to evaluate the performance of key rail routes, and assist in developing future infrastructure design and maintenance strategies.
Jardine has worked on some of the biggest rail infrastructure projects in the UK: West Mainline upgrade; East Coast Mainline upgrade, Thameslink; Stansted hi-speed link, and East London line upgrade. TRAIL has been used to analyse timetables, switches and crossings, power systems, interlocking, rolling stock performance and many other systems. Current development includes a "Lite" version that will integrate with Network Rail business systems to allow automated model populating.
Benefits
- Punctuality impact of infrastructure reliability improvements
- Punctuality impact of train (rolling stock) reliability improvements
- Punctuality impact from alternate maintenance and logistics strategies
- Delay minutes criticality by infrastructure and rolling stock items (best/worst actors)
- Comparative punctuality assessment of competing rail development schemes
