Jardine, a DNV Company and leading provider of consultancy services for performance optimisation and reliability analysis can identify and quantify opportunities for improvements in production efficiency over the next business planning cycle.

Focus on improving production efficiency is not new. A typical oil producing installation has perhaps some 30 to 50 reliability and production optimisation initiatives to improve performance each year. The question is: How successful have these been and how successful will they be in the future?

Performance forecasting is a means of providing confidence that a field and portfolio business plan can deliver improved production efficiency in the future. Forecasting future production will:

• Provide a quantitative picture of performance (not one number)
• Identify areas of focus to improve performance
• Evaluates quantitative impact from potential improvements (and/or threats)
• Provides a road map to improving performance

Forecasting production accurately is no simple task and a number of challenges exist, such as:

• Capturing all the relevant production, reliability, maintenance and operations parameters
• Identifying which field performance improvement initiatives will yield the greatest payback
• Ensuring that initiatives do not compromise safety or asset integrity
• Quantifying the year by year production efficiency resulting from all the field initiatives
• Applying forecasting in a consistent fashion across the portfolio of assets
• Ensuring all forecasts are robust and trustworthy

Our approach
With the methodology successfully developed over the years and employing the proven dynamic simulation software, MAROS (developed by Jardine Technology), we:

• Assess actual field performance
• Quantify the gap between current and best-in-class performance
• Review and rank potential field improvement initiatives in terms of impact on future production efficiency
• Forecast production year-on-year (efficiency and volumes)
• Repeat for all fields in the regional portfolio
• Provide a portfolio forecast of production year-on-year

Benefits

• Quantitative ranking of the potential success of initiatives based on production efficiency impact and cost effectiveness
• Assessment of the initiatives' impact on safety and asset integrity
• Gives these initiatives a voice in the business plan through assessing their combined impact on production efficiency