Performance forecasting enables optimisation of production efficiency for high value refinery products (e.g. gasoline, diesel, lube oils) from understanding the interaction of individual process unit reliability, refinery production slates, storage, and operational flexibility.

Jardine, a DNV Company, is a leading independent provider of consultancy services related to reliability analysis and performance forecasting in the upstream and downstream industries. In the downstream industry, our consultancy services range from plant wide performance analysis to distribution network studies, supply chain models, life cycle cost analysis down to detailed reliability engineering and failure investigation.

Our approach
To forecast the performance of a complex asset, the interactions of a large number of factors, that impact the ability of the system to perform its required function, must be assessed in an integrated manner. The key challenge is to capture all the interactions between inter-related parameters.

To perform this complex task we use a dynamic simulation software package, TARO Refining (developed by Jardine Technology), that enables a quantitative picture of performance to be built up from equipment reliability, to unit reliability, to unit utilisation, to production efficiency.

This methodology can be applied to refineries, petrochemical plants, and production and distribution networks.

Benefits
The objectives and benefits of this type of analysis depend on the type of asset being analysed: We have successfully applied this methodology to both new and existing plants.

Typical objectives are:

• Asset Design Optimisation (e.g. storage tanks, units capacity, equipment sparing, etc)
• Asset Operations Optimisation (e.g. maintenance philosophy, inventory management, product export, load shedding rules, etc)
• Identification of bottlenecks and key performance drivers (e.g. relation between asset reliability and production)
• Setting of performance targets (e.g. where to focus reliability improvement efforts)
• Evaluation and prioritisation of investment opportunities (based on NPV calculation of costs and revenues)

The Performance Forecasting methodology and the dynamic simulation technique ensure that all the factors that can potentially influence the production are considered in the analysis so that a more realistic picture of the future asset performance is produced.

Some of the typical benefits that can be achieved include:

• Maximised production of key products
• Improvement of plant utilisation
• Minimisation of investment required to achieve given targets
• Optimisation of storage requirements
• Quantification of the impact of project implementation

We work together with clients to ensure that the developed simulation models also incorporate the client’s personnel understanding of the asset and the way it operates within their organisation. Each asset and operator typically have their own specific issues, so the use of an across-the-board standard solution is often not advisable.